The Coming Wave
This book confronts a central question: can humanity effectively manage and control the powerful technologies now emerging, or are we destined to be swept away by their unstoppable momentum?
What is this "Coming Wave" of technology? The authors define a technological wave as a convergence of technologies, propelled by one or more new general-purpose technologies, that bring about profound societal changes. These "general-purpose technologies" are those that fundamentally expand human capabilities and reshape the world around us. The book illustrates this concept by looking back at historical waves, such as the advent of fire, wielded by Homo Erectus, which not only provided light, warmth, and safety but also significantly impacted human evolution by enabling the cooking of food, leading to a smaller digestive system and larger brains. Similarly, the internal combustion engine is presented as a technology that proliferated and transformed virtually every aspect of society. The current "coming wave" is characterized by advancements in several key areas, most notably artificial intelligence (AI), biotechnology, and quantum computing. In AI, large language models (LLMs) are evolving beyond mere language generation to encompass tasks like music composition, game invention, and complex problem-solving. Generative AI can now create remarkably realistic images from text descriptions, with open-source models making such capabilities widely accessible. AI is also increasingly integrated into professional fields, such as software development, with tools like Copilot significantly enhancing coding speed and efficiency. In biotechnology, groundbreaking research aims to reverse or arrest the aging process through "rejuvenation programming" by resetting the epigenome. Furthermore, new tools are emerging that can generate novel DNA sequences based on natural language instructions, signifying a deeper understanding and manipulation of the language of biology. Finally, the potential of quantum computing threatens to decimate cryptography, with the anticipated “Q-Day”, when quantum computer (with multiple orders of magnitude more powerful than normal computer) can quickly brute-force attack secure systems based on cryptography (passwords).
When is this wave unfolding? While the book is written from a near-future perspective, it emphasizes that the "coming wave" is not a singular event with a precise start date but rather an ongoing and accelerating process. The authors highlight the rapid pace of development, with significant advancements in AI capabilities, for instance, expected within the next few years, such as AI potentially passing a "Modern Turing Test" by autonomously achieving complex real-world goals.
Where is this technological transformation taking place? The development and impact of this coming wave are decidedly global. The book notes the shifting geopolitical landscape, with countries like China emerging as major players in science and engineering, sometimes challenging the traditional technological dominance of the West. This global competition fuels further innovation and the widespread adoption of new technologies across borders. Consequently, the effects of AI, biotechnology, and quantum computing will be felt across all sectors and societies worldwide, impacting economies, governance, and daily life.
Why is "containment" considered a critical dilemma? The central argument revolves around the inherent challenge of controlling technology once it is introduced into the world. The authors point out that history is replete with examples of technologies whose long-term impacts were unforeseen and often unintended. Just as the architects of the atomic bomb could not prevent nuclear war, or Henry Ford could not stop car accidents, the creators of today's powerful technologies may quickly lose control over their trajectory. This is exacerbated by the fact that technologies are often copied, adapted, and used in ways that their original inventors never envisioned. Moreover, there is a natural human tendency towards "pessimism aversion," an emotional reluctance to acknowledge potentially destabilising outcomes. The book highlights several significant risks associated with the coming wave, including the reproduction and amplification of societal biases in AI, the potential for widespread misinformation and manipulation, the displacement of human labor across various sectors, increasing security vulnerabilities, and even existential risks. Fundamentally, the dilemma arises because the incentives for developing and deploying these powerful technologies are deeply embedded in national, corporate, and research interests, making any attempts at slowing down or stopping their proliferation incredibly difficult.
How can humanity approach the challenge of containment? The book argues that while complete containment might be impossible, a multi-faceted approach involving technical, cultural, legal, and political mechanisms is necessary to maintain societal control. The book proposes "Ten Steps Toward Containment," outlining concrete actions that can be taken. These steps include:
• Investing significantly in technical safety research for AI and biosafety, with mandated corporate contributions and public sharing of findings. This involves addressing issues like AI "hallucinations," ensuring fact-checking, and developing explainable AI.
• Establishing robust audit mechanisms to ensure transparency and accountability in the development and deployment of advanced technologies. This could involve an "AI Audit Authority" to monitor capabilities and potential risks.
• Identifying and leveraging "choke points" in the development and deployment process to introduce sensible rate-limiting factors and allow time for regulatory and defensive measures to catch up.
• Fostering a culture of responsibility among technology makers by encouraging critics and embedding safety considerations from the outset.
• Aligning the incentives of businesses with the goals of containment by exploring new accountable and inclusive commercial models that prioritize safety alongside profit, such as public benefit corporations.
• Empowering governments to build their technological capabilities, regulate the sector effectively, and implement necessary mitigation measures through licensing and standards.
• Building international alliances to harmonize laws, regulations, and programs, recognizing that technology transcends national borders.
• Cultivating a culture of sharing learning and failures within the technology industry, similar to the aviation industry's approach to safety, to rapidly disseminate best practices.
• Encouraging broad public input and the formation of movements to exert pressure on all stakeholders and ensure accountability.
• Ensuring coherence across all these elements, making sure they work in harmony to create a comprehensive and effective system of containment.
The book paints a picture of a future shaped by transformative technologies, presenting a stark dilemma between the immense potential benefits and the significant risks they pose. While the path forward is fraught with uncertainty, the book offers a hopeful message: by acknowledging the challenges, fostering a culture of responsibility, and implementing a coherent and multi-faceted approach to containment, humanity can strive to navigate this unfolding wave in a way that maximizes its benefits while mitigating its potential harms.